Cocoa Shortage Will Squeeze Chocolate Makers in 2025

Rising cocoa prices are expected to put significant pressure on chocolate companies around the world in 2025, after months of dry weather conditions in West Africa that have depleted the supply of the cash crop.

According to data from World Bank, global cocoa production fell by 14% in the 2023-24 season, as output slowed in both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where at least 60% of the world's cocoa is produced. In December 2024, that saw cocoa prices hit record highs as they surged by 30% for the month, while cocoa futures traded on Wall Street nearly tripled over the course of the full year, Bloomberg reports. 

In its fourth quarter and full year financial report for 2024, Oreo and Toblerone maker Mondelēz International also warned of "unprecedented cocoa cost inflation" in the coming year. Meanwhile, Hershey lowered its outlook for adjusted earnings per share in 2025 to around $6, falling short of the $7.34 per share benchmark predicted by Wall Street analysts. In the months to come, Mondelēz expects cocoa prices to eventually come down from their current highs, with World Bank predicting rates to decrease by roughly 13% in 2025, and then another 2% in 2026 "as additional supplies enter the market." 

"However," World Bank cautioned in a January blog post, "the potential return of adverse weather in West Africa poses a significant upside risk to prices."