The pace of growth of China's economy slowed to 7.0 percent on a year-over year basis in Q1'15, following an unchanged 7.3 percent y/y in Q4'14. For perspective, full-year real GDP growth in 2014 was 7.4 percent, while 2013’s economic growth was 7.7 percent. In 2010, the country's economy was growing at a 10.4 percent y/y pace, but China's real GDP has been trending downward from double-digit levels and is now settling into a new normal in the single-digit range.

“Heavy and medium truck and tractor markets will remain subdued before shifting to a slow growth path later in the year 2015,” said Robert Perkins, senior global business consultant at ACT. Concerning the macro-economy, Perkins said, “Consumption and exports will have a positive impact, but will not likely compensate for the impact resulting from the downturn in real estate and manufacturing investment. However, newly approved infrastructure projects will support truck demand in the second half of 2015; national government funding commitment for these projects will be key due to high local government debt and regulatory revisions requiring a positive payback for projects.”

SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.

Source: ACT Research