The race toward emissions compliance and weight reduction in key global markets is estimated to create an incremental cost per vehicle of $744 globally between now and 2021, IHS Automotive says.
“The regulatory environment around emissions will drive usage of lighter materials for components and further electrification,” said Matteo Fini, senior manager, supplier solutions for IHS Automotive. “New opportunities for suppliers are emerging through a variety of powertrain technologies such as turbocharging and cooled EGR [exhaust gas recirculation] being implemented in more cost-sensitive but higher volume segments, for example.”
Comfort functions such as infotainment, vehicle connectivity and autonomous driving features may add an average of $360 to vehicle costs when compared to 2015. Consumer demand is a significant driver of this incremental cost as consumers crave to get connectivity and active safety features in the new vehicles they purchase. Further integration of consumer electronics in the vehicle will for example require OEMs to offer in-vehicle wireless charging.
In addition, automatic air conditioning, passive entry systems and power seat adjusters are being deployed across several segments on a global scale – further supporting greater penetration of well-established comfort features across key markets.
Autonomous driving features could add incremental costs of $75 per vehicle by 2021, led by increased penetration of forward collision warning and emergency braking systems, according to the research; those values may increase further as regulation continues to drive more safety technology into the market. More intelligence will be applied to lighting systems with camera- and sensor-enabled lighting controls being installed in one in five vehicles by 2021.
Increased content opportunities for suppliers are also linked to vehicle connectivity with 4G and 5G networks availability, which will allow OEMs to offer component health checks. Some OEMs are already introducing this technology on components like fuel pumps, batteries and starter motors – however, based on IHS Automotive analysis, wider applications will materialize, within chassis, as an example.
Emerging markets also are expected to play a major role in driving the average content upward on a global basis, as consumers in these markets drive demands for higher levels of sophistication for vehicles made available locally. For example, the increased use of digital and analog-digital instrument clusters in China alone is expected to generate $1.2 billion in incremental business for suppliers of this component by 2021.
Not all component areas will equally benefit from expanded opportunities, the analysis says. While, for example, enhancements to powertrain subsystems and electrification are anticipated to contribute approximately 37 percent to the overall component cost increase by 2021, interior hardware is expected to stay relatively flat. This indicates any incremental costs in some interior sub-systems will be balanced by efficiencies in others.
