Consumer spending during the 2024 holiday shopping season is expected to increase by up to 3.5% over the previous year, along with an 8-9% bump in online sales, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The NRF projects $979-989 billion worth of retail sales in the U.S. during the November-December holiday season in 2024, boosted by a "fundamentally healthy" U.S. economy that has maintained its momentum in recent months. During that same period in 2023, total retailer shopper spending ended up just over $956 billion.

“The economic data calendar was quite busy at the end of October, but while there were contradictions and mixed signals, we continue to believe the U.S. economy remains in a good place,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the organization's Monthly Economic Review released in November. 

Although the country's annual gross domestic product growth slowed from 3% in the second quarter of 2024 to 2.8% in Q3, salaries and wages increased by nearly 4% year-over-year in September 2024, while inflation grew at its lowest rate since February of 2021. The NRF says that household budgets have also been helped by a rising stock market and housing prices, two facts that support heavier spending habits.