With contentious union negotiations, rapid advancements in automation and artificial intelligence, and growing global scrutiny on human rights abuses, 2025 is set to be a transformative year for labor across supply chains, where businesses and their employees will look to achieve a tenuous balance between profitability and accountability.

Labor Disruptions

Negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) have remained at a standstill since they came to terms on wage increases in October. And with the January 15 deadline to reach a new collective bargaining agreement looming, the issue of automation at East and Gulf Coast ports has continued to be a sticking point. 

"It's a boulder being pushed uphill," says Kent Gourdin, director of the Global Logistics and Transportation Program at the College of Charleston. 

The ILA has made it clear that its members won't agree to any deal that doesn't guarantee that automated technology won't be implemented at ports over the life of the contract, while the USMX has asserted that automation is crucial to ensuring that shipping hubs can operate at peak efficiency with increased capacity. Gourdin predicts that this will ultimately lead to another strike in January, albeit one that he believes will be short-lived. As for what a compromise between the ILA and USMX might look like, he anticipates some sort of deal that guarantees automation won't replace existing jobs, but "as those folks retire, it will segue into a different rate structure that accepts the fact that automation is here to stay." 

Read More: Can U.S. Ports Find Middle Ground on Automation Before Second Strike?

The dispute between the ILA and USMX also speaks to a larger movement around organized labor, says Mike Klage, the vice president for freight forwarder NTG Supply Chain Solutions. Klage points out that union activity has increased throughout the supply chain and logistics industry, sparking a broader conversation around working conditions and wages. 

"There's definitely union momentum happening right now like there hasn't been in years," Klage says, adding that labor movements in 2025 could gain an boost from high-profile public endorsements, citing President-elect Donald Trump's recent support for the ILA as a recent example. "High-visibility backing like this may shift public perception, and increase leverage for unions during negotiations."

The push for organized labor appears to be reaching a boiling point for companies such as Amazon as well. In December 2024, nine of the company's warehouses and delivery centers went on strike for five days, as part of a push for collective bargaining agreements that would guarantee safer working conditions and increased pay. Included in those strikes was Amazon's JFK8 warehouse, which became the company's first facility in the U.S. to successfully unionize in 2022, but has yet to be formally recognized by the e-commerce giant. 

Amazon has disputed JFK8's union vote for years, claiming that pro-union workers and the federal labor board illegally interfered with the process. That said, the company has also frequently been accused of illegal union-busting at numerous facilities. A U.S. Senate investigation released in December further alleged that Amazon manipulated workplace injury data to make it seem as though its warehouses were safer than they actually were. In terms of what 2025 might hold in store for the warehousing industry at large in 2025, Klage sees "echoes of the Industrial Revolution," where it took unions years to establish safe working conditions for their members.

"It seems like the unions will probably begin to play a larger part in warehousing, but I think it'll be in fits and spurts, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out," he says. 

Automation and Artificial Intelligence

Concerns over the potential for automation and artificial intelligence to replace human workers are nothing new. But in the coming year, Klage says that autonomous solutions — particularly in warehouses and other logistics facilities — are advancing quickly. And, while they're changing how work gets done, he believes that the human element is still crucial. "The key is training people to work alongside new systems rather than trying to automate everything," Klage says.

As that technology continues to evolve, there is likely to be an "inflection point" on the horizon, says Plus One Robotics CEO Erik Nieves, as the conversation shifts from "automation vs. job security" to "automation for job security."

"By 2025, major companies and unions will increasingly acknowledge that automation is not a threat to employment, but a solution to sustainability and growth," Nieves predicts. He asserts that automation and AI will be used to support existing labor forces, and rather than using robots to replace workers, companies are more likely to focus on upskilling their existing employees to work in tandem with new technologies.

This comes as companies face increasing pressure to automate warehouse operations, thanks to an ongoing surge in online retail, with supply chain research firm LogisticsIQ projecting the market for the technology to grow from roughly $15 billion in 2019 to $55 billion by 2030. According to the firm, there are now more than 700 companies developing and offering automated technologies across warehouse management systems, micro-fulfillment, robotic components and material handling. 

Forced Labor

The International Labor Organization estimates that there are nearly 50 million people worldwide being victimized by modern slavery — which includes human trafficking and debt bondage — as well as 27.6 million working as forced labor. According to data from sustainable business consultancy BSI Americas, factories were responsible for 38% of labor rights violations in 2023, followed by warehouses at 29%, and mines at 10%. 

The fight against forced labor is expected to ramp up in 2025, with a slew of new regulations coming into effect across the globe, including mandatory reporting and disclosure requirements for the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and Australia. A handful of countries are also introducing public registries to track and monitor companies known to use forced labor, and increasing penalties and fines for non-compliance. 

Read More: How to Fight Forced Labor in the Supply Chain

“The journey toward eradicating modern slavery is not without its challenges," says Ryan Lynch, the sustainability practice director for BSI Americas. "It requires an unwavering commitment to ethical practices, a deep understanding of the complexities of global supply chains, and the willingness to evolve."

In order to keep up with tightening regulations, Lynch advises businesses to focus on improving the visibility of their respective supply chains, by regularly engaging with suppliers to assess the risk for potential violations, establishing a mechanism for whistle-blowing, and setting clear, well-documented expectations for stakeholders at every level.