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Photo: iStock / wildpixel
As the world braces for an announcement of new sweeping tariffs from President Donald Trump, economists are warning of widespread impacts to trade, inflation and jobs.
According to CNN, Trump plans to unveil his tariffs in an April 2 press conference in the White House Rose Garden, dubbing the occasion "Liberation Day." The levies are expected to take effect immediately, although it remains unclear what exactly they'll look like in practice. Trump has previously stated that the measures will apply to all countries, and that he would open to negotiating with countries individually. Those levies would be in addition to 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico scheduled to take effect on April 2, and a 25% duty on auto imports set to go into force a day later. The U.S. already has blanket 25% tariffs in place for all steel and aluminum imports, in addition to 10% tariffs on all imports from China.
Using a 20% universal tariff as a benchmark, a Moody's simulation estimated that such a levy would drop the U.S. GDP by 1.7%, lead to a loss of 5.5 million jobs, raise the country's unemployment rate from 4.1% to 7%, and ultimately send the U.S into a "serious recession." A separate analysis from Aston Business School in the U.K. estimated that a full-blown trade war between the U.S. and the rest of the world could lead to a $1.4 trillion loss in global welfare, and raise prices on everyday items in the U.S. by as much as 2.7%.
Hinting at the Trump administration's potential plans for its "Liberation Day" tariffs, the U.S. Trade Representative released a report on March 3 detailing what it perceives as the biggest trade barriers the U.S. faces in dozens of countries. The report focused heavily on China, which the USTR accused of failing to follow through on promises made in a trade deal from Trump's first term, and of using export controls to target U.S. supply chains. The report also criticized import controls Canada has in place for U.S. dairy and poultry products, EU restrictions on pesticides and genetically engineered crops used in the U.S., and Mexico's "inconsistent" enforcement of regulatory requirements at border posts.
The EU, Canada and Mexico have all vowed to hit back against any tariffs the Trump administration implements in the coming days. Speaking to EU lawmakers on April 1, Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen said that the bloc has a "strong plan to retaliate," adding that "Europe holds a lot of cards."
"All instruments are on the table,” she warned.
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