Sales of heavy-duty commercial vehicles surged to 316,725 units in the second quarter of 2010, an 83-percent increase from the second quarter of 2009 according to a report published by ACT Research Co. and China's State Information Center (SIC).
The recently released China Commercial Vehicle Outlook also provides an update to the forecast for commercial vehicle sales for the remainder of 2010 through 2014. Due to very strong demand in the first half of 2010, the forecast of full year heavy-duty truck and tractor sales has been boosted above a million units, a 62-percent increase over 2009 sales. However, the sales volume is expected to decline from the second-quarter peak over the second half of the year and into 2011 as China's economy eases towards slower growth.
The report also provides an overview of the China economy and its impact on sales of heavy- and medium-duty trucks and buses, including details on OEM market share. Highlights from the report include:
• The construction market is expected to cool further in the latter half of 2010 as the pipeline of new projects slows and existing projects are completed. Despite stringent new policies designed to significantly reduce speculative real estate investment, rapid growth continued in Q2/10.
• Road freight volumes are up 16.3 percent YTD through June compared to 1H/09. While demand for freight transportation has not yet decelerated, capacity in the industry has definitely increased.
• The longer term continues to look less promising for the bus market as infrastructure development and demographics will continue to drive passengers to other alternatives.
"The overall size of the China commercial vehicle market continues to amaze," said Kenny Vieth, partner and senior analyst with ACT. "While 2009 was the first year for the entire medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market to eclipse 1 million units, in 2010 the heavy-duty segment alone is projected eclipse last year's full market total. This growth is due to subside somewhat in coming quarters as infrastructure investment and curbs on real estate development take hold," added Vieth.
The China Commercial Vehicle Demand Outlook is published jointly by ACT and SIC and released quarterly. The next issue will be published in December 2010. To subscribe to the report, contact jkwire@actresearch.net or go to the web site at http://www.actresearch.net/.
SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology. The Business Consulting Center, a division of DIC, specializes in auto market industry research.
