Improvement in a number of indexes suggest optimism for the manufacturing sector in the coming three to six months, according to the quarterly MAPI Business Outlook.
Retail sales were lagging long before the government shutdown, but the hit that the economy took from the closure didn't help things at all. Now, the National Retail Federation, the industry's top trade group, said that shoppers this year planned to reduce spending on presents and holiday preparations.
CFOs remain optimistic about financial prospects and are focused on growth, as indicated by increased hiring, capital and R&D investments, according to buying consortium Prime Advantage's fifth annual Group CFO Survey.
Is it a waste of time to make economic forecasts? Even the most respected prognosticators are wrong as often as they're right. And the most sweeping changes? Hardly anyone ever sees them coming.
Middle-market and corporate CFOs are optimistic for macroeconomic and business growth at a level unseen since the height of the Great Recession, according to a survey by TD Bank. Forty-six percent of finance managers polled said they are more optimistic about U.S. economic growth over the next year compared to 2012. Further, 57 percent of respondents are more optimistic for their own companies' performance over the next year.
The National Retail Federation released its 2013 economic forecast, projecting retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) will increase 3.4 percent*, slightly less than the preliminary 4.2 percent growth seen in 2012. The subdued forecast comes on the heels of a holiday season that went head-to-head with Washington's political wrangling over fiscal concerns, shifting consumers' spending plans downward. In the end, holiday sales in 2012 grew 3.0 percent.
The latest American Express Spending and Saving Tracker reported that 39 percent of Americans are optimistic going into the new year, compared to 35 percent who said so going into 2012. Ten percent report they are "unconcerned" going into 2013, compared to 6 percent who said they were "unconcerned" a year ago.
Two things you should never do on an empty stomach: shop for groceries, and predict the future. In the case of the latter, that must be a guiding principle of the San Francisco Roundtable of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, which takes care to feed attendees before presenting its annual, much-anticipated predictions for the coming year and beyond.
With every presidential election comes a spirit of renewal (at least for those who supported the winning candidate). We're emboldened to look ahead, to renew our faith in the future, to reaffirm our belief that despite the occasional stumble, economic expansion will continue indefinitely.
