Performance in China's commercial vehicle market during Q2'11 was mixed. Heavy-duty construction oriented trucks, as well as heavy trucks and tractors, all posted weak results when compared to the previous quarter. However, domestic sales of medium-duty trucks reached all-time record levels, while domestic sales of large and medium buses grew 17.4% quarter over quarter. China's real GDP grew 9.5% year over year in 2Q11, a decline of 0.2 points from the previous quarter's growth and the lowest quarterly growth posted since Q2'09.
This information is included in the recently released China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, jointly published quarterly by ACT and SIC, China's State Information Center. It includes an overview of the China economy and a review and forecast of China's heavy- and medium-duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China.
"Inflation remains a problem for China," said Frank Maly, director of CV transportation analysis and research at ACT, "even though the economy is expected to grow at a slower pace throughout the second half of the year. The heavy-duty market is forecast to grow less than 1% year over year in 2011, with large and medium buses posting a 6.3% annual decline," he added. "However, the medium duty segment will remain healthy, growing over 11% year over year."
SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.
In other developments, commercial vehicle net orders in North America were healthy in September. North America heavy and medium GVW Classes 5-8 commercial vehicle preliminary net orders for September improved month over month beyond expectations, as reported by ACT Research Co. The final numbers, which will be released mid-October, will approach 23,800 units for heavy duty Class 8 trucks and 13,800 for medium Classes 5-7 vehicles. Both vehicle categories also posted positive year-over-year gains. The preliminary net order numbers are typically accurate to within 5% of actual.
"The strength in orders is indicative of healthy underlying fundamentals in the heavy-truck market," said Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "Fleet equipment is old, trucker profitability is good, and used truck values are strong; barring an economic collapse, these factors should support continued strength in Class 8 orders," added Vieth.
ACT is a publisher of new and used commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the China CV market.
