Thailand’s rice exports are expected to drop by 15% in 2024 as a global scramble for the staple food is set to ease.

The Southeast Asian nation will likely see weaker demand from Indonesia, its top buyer last year, Thai Rice Exporters Association Honorary President Chookiat Ophaswongse said January 4. A fluctuating baht may also harm its ability to compete with key grower Vietnam, he said.

Thai rice shipments rose to a five-year high of about 8.8 million tons in 2023, preliminary estimates show. But Indonesia, which recently boosted imports, will “likely cool its purchases after its presidential election next month,” Chookiat said. “The baht is also very volatile, making our prices uncompetitive, while Vietnam’s new crop is looking good.”

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Prices for Thai white rice 5% broken — an Asian benchmark — surged to a 15-year high in December after top shipper India restricted exports and dry weather threatened production. Some nations also ramped up purchases to build stockpiles amid fears that the impact of El Niño would further tighten supplies.

Vietnam’s winter-spring crop, expected to be harvested in February and March, will help bring prices down in that country and lure back buyers such as the Philippines, Chookiat said. India’s supply may also free up after an election expected by May, tempering global supply concerns.

“India is likely to maintain the bans in the first half of this year,” Chookiat said. “But if they’re revoked potentially in the second half, global rice prices will immediately drop.”