This holiday season, e-commerce growth is expected to be the lowest in at least six years as comparisons get tougher amid widespread adoption of online shopping and consumers’ eagerness to return to stores.

Online sales are expected to grow 10% in the November-December period from a year ago and reach $207 billion in the U.S., according to a study from Adobe Analytics. That’s down from the 33% increase in holiday e-commerce shopping that took place last year, compared to 2019, and represents the slowest pace of growth since at least 2015. Globally, sales are seen rising 11% to $910 billion.

Bottlenecks in the global supply chain represent a new challenge to e-commerce, and out-of-stock items represent a growing concern. When faced with the prospect of not receiving orders in time, consumers may opt to head into stores this year so they have the certainty of getting their gifts on time. 

The limited supply of products may also lead retailers to curtail the deals that are typical in the final months of the year. Online prices for goods have increased for 16 consecutive months, Adobe Analytics found. This Christmas season, discounts are expected to fall into the 5% to 25% range, compared to the historical average of 10% to 30%.

Related: Retailers Expect to Disappoint Holiday Customers, Study Finds